{"id":162818,"date":"2023-10-19T03:57:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-19T00:57:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kupitiblog.store\/576r\/several-corners-of-bond-market-manage-to-shine-this-year-despite-treasury-selloff\/"},"modified":"2023-10-19T03:57:00","modified_gmt":"2023-10-19T00:57:00","slug":"several-corners-of-bond-market-manage-to-shine-this-year-despite-treasury-selloff","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kupitiblog.store\/576r\/several-corners-of-bond-market-manage-to-shine-this-year-despite-treasury-selloff\/","title":{"rendered":"Several Corners of Bond Market Manage to Shine This Year Despite Treasury Selloff"},"content":{"rendered":"

 <\/p>\n

The ongoing bear market in Treasury bonds is among the worst on record, but several sectors of the fixed-income market remain ports in a storm, based on year-to-date results through Thursday (Oct. 5) for a set of fixed-income ETFs.<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cBonds maturing in 10 years or more have slumped 46% since peaking in March 2020,\u201d Bloomberg reports.<\/p>\n

\u201cCompared with previous bond-market meltdowns, long-term Treasuries are seeing one of the most extreme undoings in history. The losses are over twice as big as those seen in 1981 when 10-year yields neared 16%.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s quite something,\u201d observes Thomas di Galoma, co-head of global rates trading at BTIG.<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cTo be honest with you, I had never thought I would see 5% 10-year notes<\/span> ever again. We got caught in an environment post-global financial crisis where everybody just thought rates were going to remain low.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Despite the bearish tailwinds blowing through the market, it\u2019s not an across-the-board rout via a set of ETF proxies. Notably, a portfolio of bank loans (BKLN<\/span>) is leading the field with a solid 8.5% return so far in 2023 through yesterday\u2019s close (Oct. 5). Tied for second place this year: moderate gains of roughly 5% each for short-term junk bonds (SJNK<\/span>) and floating-rate notes (FLRN<\/span>).<\/p>\n

US Bonds Performance<\/span><\/p>\n

The steepest losses in the bond market in 2023 are concentrated in long maturities, led by the near-12% slide in iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT<\/span>).<\/p>\n

When will the pain end for longer-dated bonds? The answer is tightly linked to how the Federal Reserve\u2019s monetary policy evolves in the months ahead.<\/p>\n

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly dropped a tantalizing clue in a speech yesterday, advising that if the recent rise in Treasury yields persists, the central bank may no longer need to raise interest rates.<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cThe bond market has tightened quite considerably over about 36 basis points since we met in September,\u201d she said at the Economic Club of New York on Thursday (Oct. 5). \u201cThat is equivalent to about a rate hike. So then the need to do tightening additionally is not there.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The Fed funds futures market is currently estimating a moderately high probability that the Fed will leave its target rate unchanged at the next policy meeting on Nov. 1.<\/p>\n

Perhaps the crucial factor for assessing the path ahead for monetary policy is the degree of economic resilience, or the lack thereof, going forward. \u201cIt\u2019s a bond market selling off because of an underlying macro resilience and we see that in higher real rates,\u201d notes Padhraic Garvey, managing director at ING.<\/p>\n

There are signs that the recent rebound in US economic activity may be peaking. If so, that could create new headwinds for stocks, but it would likely bring a reprieve for long-dated Treasuries, which tend to rally when the economy stumbles.<\/p>\n

Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  The ongoing bear market in Treasury bonds is among the worst on record, but several sectors of the fixed-income market remain ports in a storm, based on year-to-date results through Thursday (Oct. 5) for a set of fixed-income ETFs. \u201cBonds maturing in 10 years or more have slumped 46% since peaking in March 2020,\u201d …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":162820,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3335],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nSeveral Corners of Bond Market Manage to Shine This Year Despite Treasury Selloff - BiznesSMI - \u043a\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043a\u0438 \u0432\u0430\u043b\u044e\u0442, \u0430\u043a\u0446\u0438\u0438, \u0444\u043e\u0440\u0435\u043a\u0441, \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0435\u043a\u0441\u044b, \u0430 \u0442\u0430\u043a\u0436\u0435 \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437, \u0433\u0440\u0430\u0444\u0438\u043a\u0438, \u0444\u0438\u043d\u0430\u043d\u0441\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0435 \u043d\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0438 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0430.<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ru_RU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Several Corners of Bond Market Manage to Shine This Year Despite Treasury Selloff - 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