{"id":167219,"date":"2023-10-29T15:45:30","date_gmt":"2023-10-29T12:45:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kupitiblog.store\/576r\/doom-gloom-stock-market-and-sentiment-results\/"},"modified":"2023-10-29T15:45:30","modified_gmt":"2023-10-29T12:45:42","slug":"doom-gloom-stock-market-and-sentiment-results","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kupitiblog.store\/576r\/doom-gloom-stock-market-and-sentiment-results\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cDoom & Gloom\u201d Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

This week, the Wall Street Journal published an article entitled “Another Black Monday May Be Around the Corner.”<\/span><\/p>\n

Fortunately, they wrote it this Sunday (22nd) and it (Black Monday) didn’t take place on Monday (23rd)! Unlike Paul Tudor Jones who called it “Black Monday” the Friday (Oct. 16th) before it actually occurred in 1987 (Oct. 19th), these two academics lack the market understanding for a repeat. They are running out of October Mondays…<\/p>\n

Here’s what the nervous Nellies are focused on:<\/p>\n

M2<\/span><\/p>\n

Treasury bond yield and S&P 500<\/span><\/p>\n

They point to the fact that because M2 Money Supply has contracted on a yoy basis, we are in “real danger.”<\/p>\n

Unfortunately this is the intellectual equivalent of focusing exclusively on the liabilities in a balance sheet and not the assets. They go on to say <\/p>\n

What they fail to acknowledge is there are $4 TRILLION of excess “fumes” from an unprecedented increase in Money Supply – due to an unprecedented shutdown in the global economy in 2020-2021. I drew “trend lines” so you can see just how aberrationally “above trend” we are.<\/p>\n

M2<\/span><\/p>\n

M2<\/span><\/p>\n

In other words, money supply will have to contract for multiple years just to come back to the long-term uptrend. This is one of the reasons we believe inflation should run above trend (in a reasonable range of 3-5%) for a few years.<\/p>\n

Like losing weight, there is an equation. The “easier” the loss (pill or needle) the greater the chance of impermanence or side effects. The “harder” the loss (healthy eating and lifestyle) the greater the chance of sustainability and improved health. We had “easy” printed money for a few years, now we are getting involuntarily taxed (through inflation) in arrears (at the checkout counter) for that benefit received. Every equation has an equal sign. If you want greater returns over the long term, you have to assume greater concentration and volatility in the short term. Anyone who tells you otherwise, run away.<\/p>\n

The key way to sit with equanimity when others are selling in the hole and running for the hills is to look at each BUSINESS you own (not stock), BUSINESS. Ask yourself the following question for each company: “If I owned this business in a private equity portfolio, is there anything that has changed about the business operations or ability to generate cashflow over the long term, that would require me to mark the value of the business DOWN in the portfolio?” If your answer was, “someone sent me a chart of 1987 and I’m scared” that is not the correct answer and you should find another hobby.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

The 10yr yield achieved an “Outside Day” on Monday. The 2yr yield presaged this occurrence last Thursday. “:<\/p>\n

10-Year US Treasury Yield<\/span><\/p>\n

2-Year US Treasury Yield<\/span><\/p>\n

US 10 Year Yield<\/span><\/p>\n

20 Year Treasury Bond Fund ETF<\/span><\/p>\n

Dollar Bounce Running Out of Steam?<\/strong><\/p>\n

US Dollar DXY Index<\/span><\/p>\n

High Yield Credit Spreads Still Okay:<\/strong><\/p>\n

ICE BofA US High Yield Index<\/span><\/p>\n

Seasonality Still On Point:<\/strong><\/p>\n

S&P 500 seasonality <\/span><\/p>\n

S&P 500 Weekly Seasonality<\/span><\/p>\n

S&P 500 Pre-Election Year & Aggregate Cycle<\/span><\/p>\n

NASDAQ Pre-Election Year & Aggregate Cycle<\/span><\/p>\n

The Antithesis of “1987:”<\/strong><\/p>\n

Normalized S&P 500 Price Perfomance of Secular Bull Markets<\/span><\/p>\n

Cash is Trash:<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Source of the Bull Market of 2024<\/span><\/p>\n

BofA Bull & Bear Indicator<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Earnings and Margins:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Earnings<\/span><\/p>\n

S&P 500 Net Profit Margin<\/span><\/p>\n

Fed’s Real Target (NYSE:TGT<\/span>):<\/strong><\/p>\n

CORE CPI<\/span><\/p>\n

Zillow List Price Minus Sales Price<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Getting Stretched (McClellan Summation):<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nasdaq McClellan Summation<\/span><\/p>\n

NYSE McClellan Summation<\/span><\/p>\n

Massive Digestion Of 2020-2021 Gains. 0% gains in S&P for 31 months. As a general rule, markets don’t “Top” over three years, they tend to “Top” more abruptly. Markets consolidate\/digest large gains over years before taking the next leg higher:
<\/strong><\/p>\n

S&P 500 Large Cap Index<\/span><\/p>\n

Massive Digestion Of 2020-2021 Gains. 0% gains in Nasdaq Composite<\/span> for almost 3 years:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nasdaq Composite<\/span><\/p>\n

0% gains in Small Caps for over 5 years:<\/strong><\/p>\n

S&P 600 Small Cap Index<\/span><\/p>\n

Emerging Markets continue to be ignored, just as signals point up:<\/strong><\/p>\n

MSCI Emerging Markets Free Index<\/span><\/p>\n

China Earnings:<\/strong><\/p>\n

China MSCI STEG, STRG & LTEG<\/span><\/p>\n

Economy Tracking:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP estimate<\/span><\/p>\n

Households Strong:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Household are a lot less financially vulnerable<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Blackout Periods Ending. Buybacks to commence:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Percent of S&P 500 Companies in Blackout Period<\/span><\/p>\n

PMIs bottoming:<\/strong><\/p>\n

PMIs bottoming<\/span><\/p>\n

10 Day Moving Avg Put\/Call Coming Off The Boil:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Equity Put\/Call Ratio 10-DMA<\/span><\/p>\n

History Rhyming?<\/strong><\/p>\n

EMA of Advance-Decline Ratio<\/span><\/p>\n

S&P Bullish Percent:<\/strong><\/p>\n

S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index<\/span><\/p>\n

Nasdaq<\/span> Bullish Percent:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent Index<\/span><\/p>\n

Consumer Discretionary Bullish Percent:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Consumer Discretionary Bullish Percent<\/span><\/p>\n

Consumer Staples Bullish Percent:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Consumer Staples Bullish Percent<\/span><\/p>\n

Consumer Staples Stocks Are Around Cheapest Since 2020<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Utilities Bullish Percent:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Utilities Bullish Percent<\/span><\/p>\n

Healthcare:<\/strong><\/p>\n

are Stocks<\/span><\/p>\n

Real Estate:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Real Estate Stocks<\/span><\/p>\n

Real Estate Sector<\/span><\/p>\n

Cooper Standard Reports on November 2:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Now onto the shorter term view for the General Market:<\/h3>\n

In this week’s AAII Sentiment Survey result, Bullish Percent (Video Explanation) dropped to 29.3 from 34.1% the previous week. Bearish Percent moved up to 43.2% from 34.6%. Retail investors are nervous.<\/p>\n

Sentiment Survey Historical Data<\/span><\/p>\n

AAII Bulls<\/span><\/p>\n

The CNN “Fear and Greed” dropped from 35 last week to 30 this week. Investors are fearful. You can learn how this indicator is calculated and how it works here: (Video Explanation)<\/p>\n

Fear & Greed Index<\/span><\/p>\n

US — CNN Fear and Greed Index<\/span><\/p>\n

And finally, the NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers Index) (Video Explanation) ticked up to 66.67% this week from 45.80% equity exposure last week.<\/p>\n

NAAIM Exposure Index<\/span><\/p>\n

This content was originally published on Hedgefundtips.com.<\/p>\n

Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This week, the Wall Street Journal published an article entitled “Another Black Monday May Be Around the Corner.” Fortunately, they wrote it this Sunday (22nd) and it (Black Monday) didn’t take place on Monday (23rd)! Unlike Paul Tudor Jones who called it “Black Monday” the Friday (Oct. 16th) before it actually occurred in 1987 (Oct. …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":167221,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3338],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u201cDoom & Gloom\u201d Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)\u2026 - BiznesSMI - \u043a\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043a\u0438 \u0432\u0430\u043b\u044e\u0442, \u0430\u043a\u0446\u0438\u0438, \u0444\u043e\u0440\u0435\u043a\u0441, \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0435\u043a\u0441\u044b, \u0430 \u0442\u0430\u043a\u0436\u0435 \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437, \u0433\u0440\u0430\u0444\u0438\u043a\u0438, \u0444\u0438\u043d\u0430\u043d\u0441\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0435 \u043d\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0438 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0430.<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ru_RU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u201cDoom & Gloom\u201d Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)\u2026 - BiznesSMI - \u043a\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043a\u0438 \u0432\u0430\u043b\u044e\u0442, \u0430\u043a\u0446\u0438\u0438, \u0444\u043e\u0440\u0435\u043a\u0441, \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0435\u043a\u0441\u044b, \u0430 \u0442\u0430\u043a\u0436\u0435 \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437, \u0433\u0440\u0430\u0444\u0438\u043a\u0438, \u0444\u0438\u043d\u0430\u043d\u0441\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0435 \u043d\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0438 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0430.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This week, the Wall Street Journal published an article entitled “Another Black Monday May Be Around the Corner.” Fortunately, they wrote it this Sunday (22nd) and it (Black Monday) didn’t take place on Monday (23rd)! 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