{"id":168236,"date":"2023-10-30T19:45:13","date_gmt":"2023-10-30T16:45:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kupitiblog.store\/576r\/early-q4-gdp-estimate-hints-sharp-economic-slowdown-could-be-on-the-horizon\/"},"modified":"2023-10-30T19:45:13","modified_gmt":"2023-10-30T16:45:14","slug":"early-q4-gdp-estimate-hints-sharp-economic-slowdown-could-be-on-the-horizon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kupitiblog.store\/576r\/early-q4-gdp-estimate-hints-sharp-economic-slowdown-could-be-on-the-horizon\/","title":{"rendered":"Early Q4 GDP Estimate Hints Sharp Economic Slowdown Could Be on the Horizon"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yesterday\u2019s blowout rise for US economic growth in the third quarter delivered an upside surprise, especially for analysts who remain all in with forecasting recession. But perhaps the warnings will finally find traction via the current run of softer Q4 nowcasts.<\/p>\n

Before focusing on this year\u2019s outlook for the final quarter, let\u2019s start with Q3\u2019s 4.9% increase in GDP<\/span>, which is more than double Q2 gain. The rise was an upside surprise for most estimates, including CapitalSpectator.com\u2019s final 3.8% nowcast for Q3<\/span>.<\/p>\n

For the dwindling band of analysts who\u2019ve been warning for much of the year that a recession is near, yesterday\u2019s economic data is a shock that should serve as a wake-up call that it\u2019s time to revise their models (or narrative arcs).<\/p>\n

Yet some are simply doubling down and forecasting that recession risk is still high, albeit delayed again. Eventually, the pessimism will be right, much as a broken watch offers the correct time twice a day.<\/p>\n

Perhaps the failed recession forecasts will hit pay dirt for Q4. The initial guesstimate is a weak 0.8% increase \u2013 a world below Q3\u2019s gain, based on the median estimate for sources compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.<\/p>\n

(Note: three of the seven estimates in the chart below don\u2019t currently offer Q4 nowcasts.)<\/p>\n

US Real GDP Change<\/span><\/p>\n

The obvious caveats: it\u2019s still early in the current quarter and so the current median nowcast should be viewed with a high degree of caution.<\/p>\n

Yet by some accounts, the possibility that the economy may finally crack suggests that trouble is lurking once again.<\/p>\n

Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics said:<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cIt would be very surprising if consumption growth remains this strong in the fourth quarter,\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s room for higher rates and various other headwinds to start taking a bit more of a toll.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The Conference Board advises that:<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cWhile the prospects for a soft-landing for the US economy have improved, our base case forecast still calls for two-quarters of contraction in early 2024.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Meanwhile, a set of proprietary macro indicators updated weekly in The US Business Cycle Risk Report continues to reflect low recession risk. Both indicators in the chart below continue to print above their respective tipping points that signal recession following last year\u2019s false warning that quickly reversed. (For a review of this event, see this post.)<\/p>\n

EMI-ETI Chart<\/span><\/p>\n

Near-term estimates for ETI and EMI through November suggest the expansion will persist.<\/p>\n

ETI-EMI Index Chart<\/span><\/p>\n

Surely there\u2019s another recession approaching, but the data writ large strongly indicate that the next down is (still) not on the near-term horizon.<\/p>\n

When and if that changes, as it will at some point, the telltale signs will show up in the numbers. Meanwhile, flirting with narratives and misguided analytical efforts to see demons around every corner will continue to yield the usual results.<\/p>\n

Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yesterday\u2019s blowout rise for US economic growth in the third quarter delivered an upside surprise, especially for analysts who remain all in with forecasting recession. But perhaps the warnings will finally find traction via the current run of softer Q4 nowcasts. Before focusing on this year\u2019s outlook for the final quarter, let\u2019s start with Q3\u2019s …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":168238,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3338],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nEarly Q4 GDP Estimate Hints Sharp Economic Slowdown Could Be on the Horizon - BiznesSMI - \u043a\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043a\u0438 \u0432\u0430\u043b\u044e\u0442, \u0430\u043a\u0446\u0438\u0438, \u0444\u043e\u0440\u0435\u043a\u0441, \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0435\u043a\u0441\u044b, \u0430 \u0442\u0430\u043a\u0436\u0435 \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437, \u0433\u0440\u0430\u0444\u0438\u043a\u0438, \u0444\u0438\u043d\u0430\u043d\u0441\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0435 \u043d\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0438 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0430.<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ru_RU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Early Q4 GDP Estimate Hints Sharp Economic Slowdown Could Be on the Horizon - BiznesSMI - \u043a\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043a\u0438 \u0432\u0430\u043b\u044e\u0442, \u0430\u043a\u0446\u0438\u0438, \u0444\u043e\u0440\u0435\u043a\u0441, \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0435\u043a\u0441\u044b, \u0430 \u0442\u0430\u043a\u0436\u0435 \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437, \u0433\u0440\u0430\u0444\u0438\u043a\u0438, \u0444\u0438\u043d\u0430\u043d\u0441\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0435 \u043d\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0438 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0430.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Yesterday\u2019s blowout rise for US economic growth in the third quarter delivered an upside surprise, especially for analysts who remain all in with forecasting recession. 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